As of September 27, data from CME’s ‘FedWatch’ tool reveals that there is a 50.1% probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a 25 basis point rate cut in November, closely followed by a 49.9% chance of a 50 basis point cut.

Looking ahead to December, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut stands at 26.0%. Meanwhile, there’s a 50.0% likelihood of a 75 basis point reduction, and a 24.0% chance of a total 100 basis point cut by year’s end. These insights highlight the market’s expectations for future monetary policy adjustments.